*Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain* Shyam Metalics' ₹2,700 cr capex (SBQ expansion + stainless steel unit) targets 15-25% revenue growth by FY29, lifting sales from ₹18,552 cr to ₹22,000-24,000 cr. Strong topline play. However, FY27-28 brings margin compression: EBITDA% drops 200-300 bps to 10-11% due to interest burden and depreciation. PAT% slides to 4-5% from current 6-7%. EBITDA absolute value dips to ₹2,000-2,200 cr before recovering to ₹3,000-3,500 cr post-FY29. *Key Risk:* ₹152 cr ED attachment threatens cash flow; capex funding via debt escalates leverage during cyclical steel downturn risk. *Strategic Call:* Growth accretive long-term, but near-term profitability headwind is material. Margin recovery hinges on full capacity ramp (FY30+) and operational leverage. Monitor commissioning timeline and ED resolution closely.

*Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain* Shyam Metalics' ₹2,700 cr capex (SBQ expansion + stainless steel unit) targets 15-25% revenue growth by FY29, lifting sales from ₹18,552 cr to ₹22,000-24,000 cr. Strong topline play. However, FY27-28 brings margin compression: EBITDA% drops 200-300 bps to 10-11% due to interest burden and depreciation. PAT% slides to 4-5% from current 6-7%. EBITDA absolute value dips to ₹2,000-2,200 cr before recovering to ₹3,000-3,500 cr post-FY29. *Key Risk:* ₹152 cr ED attachment threatens cash flow; capex funding via debt escalates leverage during cyclical steel downturn risk. *Strategic Call:* Growth accretive long-term, but near-term profitability headwind is material. Margin recovery hinges on full capacity ramp (FY30+) and operational leverage. Monitor commissioning timeline and ED resolution closely.

*Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain* Shyam Metalics' ₹2,700 cr capex (SBQ expansion + stainless steel unit) targets 15-25% revenue growth by FY29, lifting sales from ₹18,552 cr to ₹22,000-24,000 cr. Strong topline play. However, FY27-28 brings margin compression: EBITDA% drops 200-300 bps to 10-11% due to interest burden and depreciation. PAT% slides to 4-5% from current 6-7%. EBITDA absolute value dips to ₹2,000-2,200 cr before recovering to ₹3,000-3,500 cr post-FY29. *Key Risk:* ₹152 cr ED attachment threatens cash flow; capex funding via debt escalates leverage during cyclical steel downturn risk. *Strategic Call:* Growth accretive long-term, but near-term profitability headwind is material. Margin recovery hinges on full capacity ramp (FY30+) and operational leverage. Monitor commissioning timeline and ED resolution closely.

*Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain* Shyam Metalics' ₹2,700 cr capex (SBQ expansion + stainless steel unit) targets 15-25% revenue growth by FY29, lifting sales from ₹18,552 cr to ₹22,000-24,000 cr. Strong topline play. However, FY27-28 brings margin compression: EBITDA% drops 200-300 bps to 10-11% due to interest burden and depreciation. PAT% slides to 4-5% from current 6-7%. EBITDA absolute value dips to ₹2,000-2,200 cr before recovering to ₹3,000-3,500 cr post-FY29. *Key Risk:* ₹152 cr ED attachment threatens cash flow; capex funding via debt escalates leverage during cyclical steel downturn risk. *Strategic Call:* Growth accretive long-term, but near-term profitability headwind is material. Margin recovery hinges on full capacity ramp (FY30+) and operational leverage. Monitor commissioning timeline and ED resolution closely.